Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 12%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (TSE:8031) recently reported its half-year numbers. Statutory earnings per share of JP¥46.18 unfortunately missed expectations by 12%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of JP¥3.5t exceed expectations by 2.2%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Mitsui

Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering Mitsui provided consensus estimates of JP¥14t revenue in 2025, which would reflect a small 4.7% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 13% to JP¥303 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥14t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥310 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,795, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Mitsui analyst has a price target of JP¥4,700 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,290. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 0.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Mitsui's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mitsui. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mitsui's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mitsui going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Mitsui is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is significant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.