Advanex Inc. (TSE:5998) May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon With Recent 35% Price Plummet

Advanex Inc. (TSE:5998) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 35% share price drop in the last month. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 22% in that time.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Advanex's P/E ratio of 11.5x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Japan is also close to 13x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Advanex certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think this strong earnings growth might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

See our latest analysis for Advanex

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Advanex, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Advanex would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 347% gain to the company's bottom line. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 58% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 9.8% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Advanex's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

With its share price falling into a hole, the P/E for Advanex looks quite average now. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Advanex revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You need to take note of risks, for example - Advanex has 5 warning signs (and 2 which are concerning) we think you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than Advanex. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com