Stock Analysis

The total return for TOCALOLtd (TSE:3433) investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years

TSE:3433
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Generally speaking the aim of active stock picking is to find companies that provide returns that are superior to the market average. Buying under-rated businesses is one path to excess returns. To wit, the TOCALOLtd share price has climbed 92% in five years, easily topping the market return of 56% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 43% in the last year , including dividends .

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

View our latest analysis for TOCALOLtd

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, TOCALOLtd achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 1.4% per year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 14% per year, over the same period. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSE:3433 Earnings Per Share Growth April 23rd 2024

Dive deeper into TOCALOLtd's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of TOCALOLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, TOCALOLtd's TSR for the last 5 years was 124%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that TOCALOLtd shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 43% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 18% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. Importantly, we haven't analysed TOCALOLtd's dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you're thinking of buying.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.