Sonec Corporation's (TSE:1768) 38% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Sonec Corporation (TSE:1768) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 38% share price jump in the last month. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 60% in the last year.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Sonec's P/S ratio of 0.6x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Construction industry in Japan is about the same. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

View our latest analysis for Sonec

How Sonec Has Been Performing

Sonec has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to wane, which has kept the P/S from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Sonec's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Sonec would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 24% last year. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 7.5% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 2.1% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Sonec is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Sonec appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that Sonec trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Sonec (2 don't sit too well with us!) that you need to take into consideration.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.