Aisin Corporation Just Missed EPS By 40%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Aisin Corporation (TSE:7259) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.5% to JP¥4,888 in the past week. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥1.2t were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 40% to hit JP¥50.76 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aisin

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aisin from 13 analysts is for revenues of JP¥5.02t in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 114% to JP¥557. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥5.02t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥559 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥6,319. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Aisin analyst has a price target of JP¥7,600 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,600. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aisin's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aisin's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.4% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Aisin is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥6,319, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Aisin analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Aisin has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com