Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Medica S.p.A. (BIT:MDC)

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 26.5x Medica S.p.A. (BIT:MDC) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Italy have P/E ratios under 14x and even P/E's lower than 8x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

For example, consider that Medica's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Medica

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Medica's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Medica's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 17% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 34% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 19% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Medica's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Medica's P/E

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Medica currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 2 warning signs for Medica that we have uncovered.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Medica. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.