Davide Campari-Milano (BIT:CPR) shareholders have endured a 30% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (BIT:CPR) shareholders, since the share price is down 31% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 21%. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 30% in a year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 15% in the last three months. We note that the company has reported results fairly recently; and the market is hardly delighted. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

See our latest analysis for Davide Campari-Milano

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Davide Campari-Milano actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.4% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It looks to us like the market was probably too optimistic around growth three years ago. However, taking a look at other business metrics might shed a bit more light on the share price action.

The modest 0.8% dividend yield is unlikely to be guiding the market view of the stock. Revenue is actually up 14% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Davide Campari-Milano further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Davide Campari-Milano will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

Investors in Davide Campari-Milano had a tough year, with a total loss of 30% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 21%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Davide Campari-Milano better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Davide Campari-Milano is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Italian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.