Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Saras S.p.A. (BIT:SRS) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Saras
How Much Debt Does Saras Carry?
As you can see below, Saras had €505.2m of debt at June 2023, down from €741.3m a year prior. However, because it has a cash reserve of €499.4m, its net debt is less, at about €5.89m.
A Look At Saras' Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Saras had liabilities of €1.86b due within 12 months and liabilities of €671.3m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €499.4m in cash and €512.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €1.52b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of €1.13b, we think shareholders really should watch Saras's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price. Saras may have virtually no net debt, but it does have a lot of liabilities.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Saras has very little debt (net of cash), and boasts a debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.0078 and EBIT of 16.8 times the interest expense. Indeed relative to its earnings its debt load seems light as a feather. On the other hand, Saras's EBIT dived 14%, over the last year. We think hat kind of performance, if repeated frequently, could well lead to difficulties for the stock. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Saras's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent two years, Saras recorded free cash flow worth 58% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
We feel some trepidation about Saras's difficulty level of total liabilities, but we've got positives to focus on, too. To wit both its interest cover and net debt to EBITDA were encouraging signs. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Saras's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Saras you should be aware of, and 2 of them are significant.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BIT:SRS
Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.