Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Maire Tecnimont S.p.A. (BIT:MT) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Maire Tecnimont
What Is Maire Tecnimont's Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2020 Maire Tecnimont had debt of €924.4m, up from €793.1m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of €705.3m, its net debt is less, at about €219.1m.
How Strong Is Maire Tecnimont's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Maire Tecnimont had liabilities of €3.44b due within 12 months, and liabilities of €1.04b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €705.3m as well as receivables valued at €2.69b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €1.08b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's €835.4m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While we wouldn't worry about Maire Tecnimont's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.5 times is a sign of high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. Worse, Maire Tecnimont's EBIT was down 65% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Maire Tecnimont's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Maire Tecnimont saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Maire Tecnimont's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability handle its debt, based on its EBITDA, isn't such a worry. Considering all the factors previously mentioned, we think that Maire Tecnimont really is carrying too much debt. To our minds, that means the stock is rather high risk, and probably one to avoid; but to each their own (investing) style. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Maire Tecnimont (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About BIT:MAIRE
Maire
MAIRE S.p.A. develops and implements various solutions to enable the energy transition.
Flawless balance sheet with solid track record.