TCI Developers Limited (NSE:TCIDEVELOP) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 13, 2022
NSEI:TCIDEVELOP
Source: Shutterstock

TCI Developers (NSE:TCIDEVELOP) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 12% over the last month. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Particularly, we will be paying attention to TCI Developers' ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for TCI Developers

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for TCI Developers is:

2.1% = ₹18m ÷ ₹876m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2021).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every ₹1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of ₹0.02.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

TCI Developers' Earnings Growth And 2.1% ROE

As you can see, TCI Developers' ROE looks pretty weak. Even when compared to the industry average of 4.5%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 11% seen by TCI Developers over the last five years is not surprising. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

So, as a next step, we compared TCI Developers' performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 5.8% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
NSEI:TCIDEVELOP Past Earnings Growth January 13th 2022

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if TCI Developers is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is TCI Developers Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

TCI Developers doesn't pay any dividend, meaning that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business, which doesn't explain why the company's earnings have shrunk if it is retaining all of its profits. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by TCI Developers can be open to many interpretations. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. To know the 3 risks we have identified for TCI Developers visit our risks dashboard for free.

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