Stock Analysis

Is JSW Steel Limited (NSE:JSWSTEEL) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value

NSEI:JSWSTEEL
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Does the February share price for JSW Steel Limited (NSE:JSWSTEEL) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for JSW Steel

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) -₹31.0b ₹81.4b ₹138.4b ₹187.5b ₹237.9b ₹287.5b ₹335.3b ₹381.2b ₹425.5b ₹468.8b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x17 Analyst x17 Analyst x15 Est @ 35.45% Est @ 26.86% Est @ 20.85% Est @ 16.63% Est @ 13.69% Est @ 11.62% Est @ 10.18%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 20% -₹25.9k ₹56.6k ₹80.2k ₹90.6k ₹95.8k ₹96.6k ₹93.9k ₹89.0k ₹82.8k ₹76.1k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹736b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 20%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹469b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (20%– 6.8%) = ₹3.8t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹3.8t÷ ( 1 + 20%)10= ₹619b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹1.4t. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹728, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
NSEI:JSWSTEEL Discounted Cash Flow February 18th 2023

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at JSW Steel as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 20%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.350. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for JSW Steel

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by cash flow.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Indian market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Indian market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For JSW Steel, there are three important aspects you should assess:

  1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for JSW Steel (1 is significant!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does JSWSTEEL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether JSW Steel is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.