Stock Analysis

Does This Valuation Of JSW Steel Limited (NSE:JSWSTEEL) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

NSEI:JSWSTEEL
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Key Insights

  • JSW Steel's estimated fair value is ₹588 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Current share price of ₹780 suggests JSW Steel is potentially 33% overvalued
  • The ₹744 analyst price target for JSWSTEEL is 27% more than our estimate of fair value

How far off is JSW Steel Limited (NSE:JSWSTEEL) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for JSW Steel

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹35.1b ₹99.9b ₹132.6b ₹159.2b ₹184.8b ₹209.4b ₹233.2b ₹256.4b ₹279.5b ₹302.8b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x11 Analyst x13 Analyst x4 Est @ 20.10% Est @ 16.10% Est @ 13.30% Est @ 11.34% Est @ 9.96% Est @ 9.00% Est @ 8.33%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 17% ₹30.1k ₹73.4k ₹83.5k ₹86.0k ₹85.6k ₹83.1k ₹79.3k ₹74.8k ₹69.8k ₹64.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹730b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 17%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹303b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (17%– 6.8%) = ₹3.3t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹3.3t÷ ( 1 + 17%)10= ₹700b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹1.4t. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of ₹780, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
NSEI:JSWSTEEL Discounted Cash Flow September 28th 2023

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at JSW Steel as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 17%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.188. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for JSW Steel

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by cash flow.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Indian market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the Indian market.

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For JSW Steel, we've compiled three important elements you should further research:

  1. Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with JSW Steel (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
  2. Future Earnings: How does JSWSTEEL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether JSW Steel is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.