Jindal Saw Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a sad week for Jindal Saw Limited (NSE:JINDALSAW), who've watched their investment drop 11% to ₹228 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at ₹208b, although statutory earnings per share came in 12% below what the analysts expected, at ₹27.22 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

We check all companies for important risks. See what we found for Jindal Saw in our free report.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Jindal Saw's three analysts is for revenues of ₹215.1b in 2026. This reflects a credible 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.3% to ₹29.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹218.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹33.93 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Jindal Saw

The consensus price target held steady at ₹396, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jindal Saw at ₹452 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹331. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Jindal Saw's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Jindal Saw.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Jindal Saw analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Jindal Saw's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.