Asian Paints Limited Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT), which a week ago released some disappointing third-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Asian Paints missed analyst forecasts, with revenues of ₹85b and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹11.58, falling short by 4.2% and 8.4% respectively. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Asian Paints

Following the latest results, Asian Paints' 35 analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹373.3b in 2026. This would be a meaningful 9.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 13% to ₹49.79. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹388.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹52.49 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹2,512 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Asian Paints, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹3,650 and the most bearish at ₹2,000 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Asian Paints' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 7.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Asian Paints.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Asian Paints going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Asian Paints .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.