Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Bannari Amman Sugars Limited (NSE:BANARISUG)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Bannari Amman Sugars fair value estimate is ₹4,290
• With ₹3,634 share price, Bannari Amman Sugars appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• Peers of Bannari Amman Sugars are currently trading on average at a 1,848% premium

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Bannari Amman Sugars Limited (NSE:BANARISUG) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Bannari Amman Sugars

The Model

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹3.00b	₹3.26b	₹3.52b	₹3.79b	₹4.07b	₹4.36b	₹4.67b	₹4.99b	₹5.33b	₹5.70b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 9.38%	Est @ 8.58%	Est @ 8.02%	Est @ 7.63%	Est @ 7.36%	Est @ 7.17%	Est @ 7.03%	Est @ 6.94%	Est @ 6.87%	Est @ 6.83%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 13%	₹2.7k	₹2.6k	₹2.5k	₹2.4k	₹2.3k	₹2.1k	₹2.0k	₹1.9k	₹1.8k	₹1.8k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹22b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 6.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹5.7b× (1 + 6.7%) ÷ (13%– 6.7%) = ₹105b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹105b÷ ( 1 + 13%)¹⁰= ₹32b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹54b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹3.6k, the company appears about fair value at a 15% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Bannari Amman Sugars as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

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SWOT Analysis for Bannari Amman Sugars

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Bannari Amman Sugars, we've compiled three relevant aspects you should explore:

1. Risks: Be aware that Bannari Amman Sugars is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.