If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? When we see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) in conjunction with a declining base of capital employed, that's often how a mature business shows signs of aging. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. On that note, looking into SPML Infra (NSE:SPMLINFRA), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for SPML Infra:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.015 = ₹182m ÷ (₹28b - ₹16b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
So, SPML Infra has an ROCE of 1.5%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Construction industry average of 14%.
Check out our latest analysis for SPML Infra
While the past is not representative of the future, it can be helpful to know how a company has performed historically, which is why we have this chart above. If you're interested in investigating SPML Infra's past further, check out this free graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.
How Are Returns Trending?
There is reason to be cautious about SPML Infra, given the returns are trending downwards. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 13% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on SPML Infra becoming one if things continue as they have.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that SPML Infra has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 58%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. Ideally we'd like to see this reduce as that would mean fewer obligations bearing risks.
The Bottom Line On SPML Infra's ROCE
In summary, it's unfortunate that SPML Infra is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Investors must expect better things on the horizon though because the stock has risen 20% in the last five years. Regardless, we don't like the trends as they are and if they persist, we think you might find better investments elsewhere.
SPML Infra does come with some risks though, we found 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those can't be ignored...
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:SPMLINFRA
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet.