HBL Power Systems Limited's (NSE:HBLPOWER) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

HBL Power Systems' (NSE:HBLPOWER) stock is up by a considerable 51% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Particularly, we will be paying attention to HBL Power Systems' ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for HBL Power Systems

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for HBL Power Systems is:

1.2% = ₹89m ÷ ₹7.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every ₹1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ₹0.01 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

HBL Power Systems' Earnings Growth And 1.2% ROE

It is quite clear that HBL Power Systems' ROE is rather low. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 7.5%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 14% seen by HBL Power Systems was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared HBL Power Systems' growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 10% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if HBL Power Systems is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is HBL Power Systems Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

In spite of a normal three-year median payout ratio of 31% (that is, a retention ratio of 69%), the fact that HBL Power Systems' earnings have shrunk is quite puzzling. So there could be some other explanations in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

In addition, HBL Power Systems has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by HBL Power Systems can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. To know the 4 risks we have identified for HBL Power Systems visit our risks dashboard for free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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