Bajaj Auto Limited's (NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

Bajaj Auto (NSE:BAJAJ-AUTO) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 33% over the last three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. In this article, we decided to focus on Bajaj Auto's ROE.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Bajaj Auto

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Bajaj Auto is:

25% = ₹74b ÷ ₹293b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each ₹1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made ₹0.25 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Bajaj Auto's Earnings Growth And 25% ROE

To start with, Bajaj Auto's ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 19%. Probably as a result of this, Bajaj Auto was able to see a decent growth of 8.1% over the last five years.

We then compared Bajaj Auto's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 19% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Bajaj Auto's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Bajaj Auto Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 66% (or a retention ratio of 34%) for Bajaj Auto suggests that the company's growth wasn't really hampered despite it returning most of its income to its shareholders.

Besides, Bajaj Auto has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 56%. Still, forecasts suggest that Bajaj Auto's future ROE will rise to 37% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

In total, it does look like Bajaj Auto has some positive aspects to its business. Its earnings have grown respectably as we saw earlier, which was likely due to the company reinvesting its earnings at a pretty high rate of return. However, given the high ROE, we do think that the company is reinvesting a small portion of its profits. This could likely be preventing the company from growing to its full extent. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.