Stock Analysis

The five-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Summit Real Estate Holdings (TLV:SMT) shareholders as stock falls 5.9% over the past week

Published
TASE:SMT

If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Summit Real Estate Holdings Ltd (TLV:SMT) share price is up 19% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Over the last twelve months the stock price has risen a very respectable 17%.

Although Summit Real Estate Holdings has shed ₪242m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

View our latest analysis for Summit Real Estate Holdings

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Summit Real Estate Holdings actually saw its EPS drop 65% per year. The impact of extraordinary items on earnings, in the last year, partially explain the diversion.

Since the EPS are down strongly, it seems highly unlikely market participants are looking at EPS to value the company. The falling EPS doesn't correlate with the climbing share price, so it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 0.6% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. On the other hand, Summit Real Estate Holdings' revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 18% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

TASE:SMT Earnings and Revenue Growth November 17th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Summit Real Estate Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Summit Real Estate Holdings' TSR for the last 5 years was 22%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Summit Real Estate Holdings shareholders gained a total return of 18% during the year. But that was short of the market average. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it's actually better than the average return of 4% over half a decade This suggests the company might be improving over time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Summit Real Estate Holdings you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit concerning.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Israeli exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.