Carmit Candy Industries Ltd.'s (TLV:CRMT) 27% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Carmit Candy Industries Ltd. (TLV:CRMT) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 31%.

Following the firm bounce in price, Carmit Candy Industries may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 34.9x, since almost half of all companies in Israel have P/E ratios under 11x and even P/E's lower than 7x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

Carmit Candy Industries certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Carmit Candy Industries

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Carmit Candy Industries, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Carmit Candy Industries would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 441%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 68% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 15% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Carmit Candy Industries is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Carmit Candy Industries' P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Carmit Candy Industries currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 4 warning signs we've spotted with Carmit Candy Industries (including 3 which shouldn't be ignored).

You might be able to find a better investment than Carmit Candy Industries. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.