JD Logistics, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

JD Logistics, Inc. (HKG:2618) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.2% to HK$13.20 in the week after its latest full-year results. JD Logistics reported CN¥183b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.98 beat expectations, being 8.4% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on JD Logistics after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for JD Logistics

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from JD Logistics' 15 analysts is for revenues of CN¥204.0b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 9.1% to CN¥1.10. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥196.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.05 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of HK$18.74, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JD Logistics at HK$23.15 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$11.74. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that JD Logistics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while JD Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards JD Logistics following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JD Logistics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.