Analysts Are Updating Their Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited (HKG:177) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results

Investors in Jiangsu Expressway Company Limited (HKG:177) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.3% to close at HK$9.31 following the release of its annual results. Revenues were CN¥23b, and Jiangsu Expressway came in a solid 16% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the seven analysts covering Jiangsu Expressway, is for revenues of CN¥16.1b in 2025. This implies a disturbing 30% reduction in Jiangsu Expressway's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 2.5% to CN¥0.96 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥16.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.97 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for Jiangsu Expressway

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at HK$10.42. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jiangsu Expressway at HK$11.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$8.71. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Jiangsu Expressway's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 30% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Jiangsu Expressway's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Jiangsu Expressway's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$10.42, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Jiangsu Expressway analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Jiangsu Expressway (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.