Optimistic Investors Push Neo Telemedia Limited (HKG:8167) Shares Up 40% But Growth Is Lacking

Those holding Neo Telemedia Limited (HKG:8167) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 40% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 73% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Neo Telemedia's P/S ratio of 0.4x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Electronic industry in Hong Kong is about the same. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Neo Telemedia

How Has Neo Telemedia Performed Recently?

For instance, Neo Telemedia's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Neo Telemedia will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Neo Telemedia's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 15%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 20% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 17% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Neo Telemedia is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Neo Telemedia appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that Neo Telemedia trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Neo Telemedia (at least 2 which are a bit concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Neo Telemedia, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.