Cathay Group Holdings Inc. (HKG:1981) Shares May Have Slumped 27% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Cathay Group Holdings Inc. (HKG:1981) shares are down a considerable 27% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 29% share price drop.

Even after such a large drop in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Cathay Group Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Entertainment industry is similar at about 1.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Check out our latest analysis for Cathay Group Holdings

How Cathay Group Holdings Has Been Performing

Recent times haven't been great for Cathay Group Holdings as its revenue has been rising slower than most other companies. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to lift, which has kept the P/S from declining. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Cathay Group Holdings.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Cathay Group Holdings?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Cathay Group Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 17% gain to the company's top line. Revenue has also lifted 24% in aggregate from three years ago, mostly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing revenue over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 15% as estimated by the three analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 42% growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this information, we find it interesting that Cathay Group Holdings is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Cathay Group Holdings' P/S?

Cathay Group Holdings' plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Given that Cathay Group Holdings' revenue growth projections are relatively subdued in comparison to the wider industry, it comes as a surprise to see it trading at its current P/S ratio. When we see companies with a relatively weaker revenue outlook compared to the industry, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/S lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Cathay Group Holdings with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of Cathay Group Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.