What Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited's (HKG:682) 26% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Those holding Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited (HKG:682) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 11% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings)'s price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Food industry in Hong Kong, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings)

How Has Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings)'s financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings)'s to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 15%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with revenue growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 5.6% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it interesting that Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings)'s P/S?

Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings)'s stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.