Stock Analysis

The three-year shareholder returns and company earnings persist lower as China Conch Venture Holdings (HKG:586) stock falls a further 3.5% in past week

Published
SEHK:586

Every investor on earth makes bad calls sometimes. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of China Conch Venture Holdings Limited (HKG:586) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 81%. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 53% in the last year. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

With the stock having lost 3.5% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

Check out our latest analysis for China Conch Venture Holdings

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

China Conch Venture Holdings saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 24% per year, over the last three years. This reduction in EPS is slower than the 42% annual reduction in the share price. So it's likely that the EPS decline has disappointed the market, leaving investors hesitant to buy. This increased caution is also evident in the rather low P/E ratio, which is sitting at 3.52.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SEHK:586 Earnings Per Share Growth March 18th 2024

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on China Conch Venture Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of China Conch Venture Holdings, it has a TSR of -71% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that China Conch Venture Holdings shareholders are down 51% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 8.1%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 10% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand China Conch Venture Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for China Conch Venture Holdings you should be aware of.

Of course China Conch Venture Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.