Grace Life-tech Holdings Limited's (HKG:2112) Price Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Grace Life-tech Holdings Limited's (HKG:2112) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.4x may not look like an appealing investment opportunity when you consider close to half the companies in the Trade Distributors industry in Hong Kong have P/S ratios below 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Check out our latest analysis for Grace Life-tech Holdings

How Has Grace Life-tech Holdings Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Grace Life-tech Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Grace Life-tech Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Grace Life-tech Holdings' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 37%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 35% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 3.0% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Grace Life-tech Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Grace Life-tech Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Grace Life-tech Holdings you should be aware of, and 3 of them make us uncomfortable.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.