Stock Analysis

2.4% earnings growth over 3 years has not materialized into gains for Haitian International Holdings (HKG:1882) shareholders over that period

SEHK:1882
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Investors can earn very close to the average market return by buying an index fund. By comparison, an individual stock is unlikely to match market returns - and could well fall short. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Haitian International Holdings Limited (HKG:1882) shareholders, since the share price is down 44% in the last three years, less than the market decline of around 36%. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 32% in the last year. Furthermore, it's down 15% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 9.2% in the same timeframe.

With the stock having lost 10% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.

See our latest analysis for Haitian International Holdings

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Although the share price is down over three years, Haitian International Holdings actually managed to grow EPS by 7.5% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's worth taking a look at other metrics, because the EPS growth doesn't seem to match with the falling share price.

Revenue is actually up 3.5% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Haitian International Holdings further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:1882 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 23rd 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Haitian International Holdings' TSR for the last 3 years was -37%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 23% in the twelve months, Haitian International Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 30% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.8%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Haitian International Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.