What D&G Technology Holding Company Limited's (HKG:1301) 31% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

The D&G Technology Holding Company Limited (HKG:1301) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 31%. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 12% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies operating in Hong Kong's Machinery industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 0.7x, you may consider D&G Technology Holding as a stock to potentially avoid with its 1.7x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

View our latest analysis for D&G Technology Holding

What Does D&G Technology Holding's Recent Performance Look Like?

D&G Technology Holding has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. It might be that many expect the respectable revenue performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for D&G Technology Holding, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, D&G Technology Holding would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 11% gain to the company's revenues. Ultimately though, it couldn't turn around the poor performance of the prior period, with revenue shrinking 33% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 15% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that D&G Technology Holding's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

D&G Technology Holding's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of D&G Technology Holding revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

You need to take note of risks, for example - D&G Technology Holding has 2 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.