Stock Analysis

Dah Sing Financial Holdings (HKG:440) earnings and shareholder returns have been trending downwards for the last five years, but the stock rallies 8.0% this past week

SEHK:440
Source: Shutterstock

Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But along the way some stocks are going to perform badly. Zooming in on an example, the Dah Sing Financial Holdings Limited (HKG:440) share price dropped 61% in the last half decade. That's not a lot of fun for true believers. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 26%. But it's up 8.0% in the last week. The buoyant market could have helped drive the share price pop, since stocks are up 4.9% in the same period.

On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$396m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Dah Sing Financial Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Dah Sing Financial Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 4.1% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 17% annual reduction in the share price. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, in the past. The less favorable sentiment is reflected in its current P/E ratio of 4.27.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:440 Earnings Per Share Growth February 22nd 2024

Dive deeper into Dah Sing Financial Holdings' key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Dah Sing Financial Holdings's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Dah Sing Financial Holdings the TSR over the last 5 years was -50%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Dah Sing Financial Holdings shareholders are down 21% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 10%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Dah Sing Financial Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.