Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Good Energy Group PLC (LON:GOOD) After Its Annual Results

There's been a notable change in appetite for Good Energy Group PLC (LON:GOOD) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 17% to UK£2.60. Revenues of UK£255m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at UK£0.17, missing estimates by 3.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Good Energy Group after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Good Energy Group

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from two analysts covering Good Energy Group is for revenues of UK£212.0m in 2024. This implies an uncomfortable 17% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 49% to UK£0.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of UK£255.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.23 in 2024. Indeed we can see that the consensus opinion has undergone some fundamental changes following the latest results, with a substantial drop in revenues and some minor tweaks to earnings numbers.

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of UK£5.00, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Good Energy Group's market value.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Good Energy Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 17% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 21% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Good Energy Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at UK£5.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Good Energy Group going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Good Energy Group (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.