Stock Analysis

Petrofac (LON:PFC investor five-year losses grow to 89% as the stock sheds UK£74m this past week

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LSE:PFC

We're definitely into long term investing, but some companies are simply bad investments over any time frame. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Petrofac Limited (LON:PFC) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 90%. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 44% in the last year. Even worse, it's down 28% in about a month, which isn't fun at all. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

After losing 20% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Petrofac

Petrofac wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last five years Petrofac saw its revenue shrink by 20% per year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 14% per year in that period. This kind of price performance makes us very wary, especially when combined with falling revenue. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor - but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

LSE:PFC Earnings and Revenue Growth October 19th 2023

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

Petrofac shareholders are down 44% for the year, but the market itself is up 9.0%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 14% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Petrofac better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Petrofac you should know about.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Petrofac is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.