Marlowe (LON:MRL) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Marlowe plc (LON:MRL) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Marlowe

How Much Debt Does Marlowe Carry?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2023, Marlowe had UK£229.0m of debt, up from UK£176.0m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had UK£36.3m in cash, and so its net debt is UK£192.7m.

A Look At Marlowe's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Marlowe had liabilities of UK£140.4m due within a year, and liabilities of UK£314.5m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had UK£36.3m in cash and UK£122.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total UK£296.6m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of UK£348.4m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Marlowe's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Marlowe's debt is 2.9 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 2.7 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. On the other hand, Marlowe grew its EBIT by 22% in the last year. If it can maintain that kind of improvement, its debt load will begin to melt away like glaciers in a warming world. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Marlowe's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Marlowe recorded free cash flow of 22% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Marlowe's interest cover and level of total liabilities definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But the good news is it seems to be able to grow its EBIT with ease. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Marlowe's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Marlowe has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.