Results: Trifast plc Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Trifast plc (LON:TRI) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Trifast reported UK£188m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.043 beat expectations, being 6.4% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Trifast

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Trifast's six analysts is for revenues of UK£206.3m in 2022, which would reflect a decent 9.6% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 39% to UK£0.06. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£205.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.052 in 2022. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£1.77, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trifast at UK£1.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£1.55. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Trifast is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Trifast's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.6% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Trifast to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Trifast following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Trifast going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Trifast Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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