Air France-KLM SA (EPA:AF) Just Reported Third-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a mediocre week for Air France-KLM SA (EPA:AF) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to €7.78 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €9.0b and statutory earnings per share of €4.10. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Air France-KLM after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Air France-KLM

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Air France-KLM are now predicting revenues of €32.4b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Air France-KLM forecast to report a statutory profit of €3.87 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €32.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.00 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at €10.88, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Air France-KLM at €27.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €7.10. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Air France-KLM's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Air France-KLM.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Air France-KLM. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Air France-KLM's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €10.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Air France-KLM going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Air France-KLM that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.