Stock Analysis

The three-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Unibel (EPA:UNBL) shareholders as stock falls 3.6% over the past week

ENXTPA:UNBL
Source: Shutterstock

By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, the Unibel S.A. (EPA:UNBL) share price is up 45% in the last three years, clearly besting the market return of around 25% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 2.1% in the last year , including dividends .

While this past week has detracted from the company's three-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

See our latest analysis for Unibel

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years of share price growth, Unibel actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 0.9% per year.

Based on these numbers, we think that the decline in earnings per share may not be a good representation of how the business has changed over the years. So other metrics may hold the key to understanding what is influencing investors.

Languishing at just 1.1%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. Do you think that shareholders are buying for the 1.8% per annum revenue growth trend? We don't. So truth be told we can't see an easy explanation for the share price action, but perhaps you can...

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
ENXTPA:UNBL Earnings and Revenue Growth February 15th 2024

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Unibel's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Unibel's TSR for the last 3 years was 50%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Unibel shareholders are up 2.1% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, the longer term returns (running at about 3% a year, over half a decade) look better. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Unibel better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Unibel that you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on French exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Unibel is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.