Vinci (EPA:DG) Has Some Way To Go To Become A Multi-Bagger

What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. Although, when we looked at Vinci (EPA:DG), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Vinci:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.098 = €5.7b ÷ (€103b - €45b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

Therefore, Vinci has an ROCE of 9.8%. On its own that's a low return, but compared to the average of 7.2% generated by the Construction industry, it's much better.

Check out our latest analysis for Vinci

In the above chart we have measured Vinci's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us

There are better returns on capital out there than what we're seeing at Vinci. The company has consistently earned 9.8% for the last five years, and the capital employed within the business has risen 54% in that time. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.

On a side note, Vinci's current liabilities are still rather high at 43% of total assets. This effectively means that suppliers (or short-term creditors) are funding a large portion of the business, so just be aware that this can introduce some elements of risk. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.

The Bottom Line On Vinci's ROCE

In summary, Vinci has simply been reinvesting capital and generating the same low rate of return as before. Although the market must be expecting these trends to improve because the stock has gained 46% over the last five years. But if the trajectory of these underlying trends continue, we think the likelihood of it being a multi-bagger from here isn't high.

Like most companies, Vinci does come with some risks, and we've found 2 warning signs that you should be aware of.

While Vinci isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.