F-Secure Oyj (HEL:FSC1V) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

The annual results for F-Secure Oyj (HEL:FSC1V) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of €220m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.08, missing estimates by 4.0%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for F-Secure Oyj

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from F-Secure Oyj's three analysts is for revenues of €234.4m in 2021, which would reflect a reasonable 6.4% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 11% to €0.09. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €232.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.09 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €4.00, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values F-Secure Oyj at €4.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €3.60. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting F-Secure Oyj is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that F-Secure Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 6.4% increase next year well below the historical 9.2%p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that F-Secure Oyj is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for F-Secure Oyj going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of F-Secure Oyj's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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