Grifols, S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Grifols, S.A. (BME:GRF) shares plunged 22% in the week since its latest annual results, closing yesterday at €8.98. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of €6.6b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 59% to hit €0.09 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Grifols after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Grifols

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Grifols from 14 analysts is for revenues of €7.09b in 2024. If met, it would imply a reasonable 7.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €7.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.88 in 2024. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of €18.88. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Grifols, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €27.80 and the most bearish at €9.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.5% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 6.4% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 20% annually. So although Grifols is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their revenue estimates for next year, suggesting that the business is performing in line with expectations. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €18.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

We have estimates for Grifols from its 14 analysts out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Grifols (2 make us uncomfortable!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.