Amadeus (BME:AMS) Valuation in Focus After Strong Q3 Earnings and Positive AI Outlook

Amadeus IT Group (BME:AMS) delivered third-quarter earnings that topped expectations, with both revenue and profit coming in ahead of consensus. The company’s outperformance was supported by stronger travel bookings and consistent growth across key markets.

See our latest analysis for Amadeus IT Group.

After a solid earnings beat and upbeat guidance, Amadeus IT Group's share price has shown only modest movement this year. The 1-year total shareholder return stands just below flat, reflecting steady long-term gains rather than rapid momentum. Three- and five-year returns are 31% and 20% respectively. Recent resilience in travel tech demand and management’s confidence around AI integration suggest underlying growth potential may not be fully reflected in the current share price.

If Amadeus’s position in travel technology sparks your curiosity about fresh opportunities, consider expanding your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares still trading below analyst price targets and confidence running high around future innovation, the question now is whether Amadeus presents genuine value at today’s levels or if the anticipated growth is already factored into the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 13.3% Undervalued

Compared to the recent closing price, the most widely followed narrative assigns Amadeus IT Group a significantly higher fair value, suggesting the stock remains attractively priced even after its latest earnings beat.

Diversification beyond airline distribution into hospitality, payments, airport operations, and new rail agreements demonstrates successful expansion into high-growth verticals (e.g., Marriott/Accor implementation, payments, biometrics at Gatwick). This reduces reliance on traditional airline cycles and supports a more sustainable top-line and earnings trajectory.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the financial formula behind this optimistic price? Analysts are betting on upward momentum from expansion far outside airline activities. Uncover exactly how this diversification puts Amadeus on the map for higher margins and resilient earnings. The details might surprise you. See how a changing business mix drives this fair value calculation.

Result: Fair Value of $77.05 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent high R&D spending and increased foreign exchange volatility could put pressure on Amadeus’s margins and earnings momentum in the near term.

Find out about the key risks to this Amadeus IT Group narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Offers a Different Perspective

While analyst targets suggest Amadeus IT Group is undervalued, our SWS DCF model tells a different story. Based on conservative cash flow estimates, the DCF approach values the company lower than its current share price, suggesting the market may already factor in much of its growth narrative. How should investors weigh up these two signals?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Amadeus IT Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 884 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Amadeus IT Group Narrative

Feel like the numbers tell a different story, or want to put your own perspective to the test? It takes less than three minutes to build a narrative that fits your research: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Amadeus IT Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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