Stock Analysis

AS LHV Group's (TAL:LHV1T) five-year earnings growth trails the 30% YoY shareholder returns

TLSE:LHV1T
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When you buy a stock there is always a possibility that it could drop 100%. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. One great example is AS LHV Group (TAL:LHV1T) which saw its share price drive 237% higher over five years. Meanwhile the share price is 4.6% higher than it was a week ago.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for AS LHV Group investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for AS LHV Group

SWOT Analysis for AS LHV Group

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Banks market.
  • Current share price is above our estimate of fair value.
Opportunity
  • LHV1T's financial characteristics indicate limited near-term opportunities for shareholders.
  • Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine LHV1T's earnings prospects.
Threat
  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During five years of share price growth, AS LHV Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 30% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 27% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that investor sentiment towards the company has not changed a great deal. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
TLSE:LHV1T Earnings Per Share Growth June 22nd 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on AS LHV Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of AS LHV Group, it has a TSR of 266% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that AS LHV Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 11% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. However, that falls short of the 30% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. Before forming an opinion on AS LHV Group you might want to consider these 3 valuation metrics.

We will like AS LHV Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Estonian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether AS LHV Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.