Stock Analysis

Despite lower earnings than three years ago, Hamburger Hafen und Logistik (ETR:HHFA) investors are up 41% since then

Published
XTRA:HHFA

You can receive the average market return by buying a low-cost index fund. But you can make superior returns by picking better-than average stocks. For example, the Hamburger Hafen und Logistik Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:HHFA) share price is up 26% in the last three years, slightly above the market return. The stock price is up 4.4%: that's not amazing, but it's better than a kick in the teeth.

In light of the stock dropping 5.1% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.

See our latest analysis for Hamburger Hafen und Logistik

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the three years of share price growth, Hamburger Hafen und Logistik actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 28% per year.

Thus, it seems unlikely that the market is focussed on EPS growth at the moment. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 0.5% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. Do you think that shareholders are buying for the 0.6% per annum revenue growth trend? We don't. So truth be told we can't see an easy explanation for the share price action, but perhaps you can...

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

XTRA:HHFA Earnings and Revenue Growth March 4th 2025

Take a more thorough look at Hamburger Hafen und Logistik's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Hamburger Hafen und Logistik's TSR for the last 3 years was 41%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Hamburger Hafen und Logistik shareholders gained a total return of 4.9% during the year. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 5% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Hamburger Hafen und Logistik .

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Hamburger Hafen und Logistik might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.