Stock Analysis
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, KPS AG (ETR:KSC) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for KPS
What Is KPS's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2024 KPS had debt of €55.7m, up from €52.8m in one year. However, it does have €11.1m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €44.6m.
How Healthy Is KPS' Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, KPS had liabilities of €67.8m due within 12 months, and liabilities of €20.9m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had €11.1m in cash and €36.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €40.8m.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's €35.3m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine KPS's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
In the last year KPS had a loss before interest and tax, and actually shrunk its revenue by 18%, to €152m. We would much prefer see growth.
Caveat Emptor
While KPS's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Indeed, it lost €1.8m at the EBIT level. When we look at that alongside the significant liabilities, we're not particularly confident about the company. It would need to improve its operations quickly for us to be interested in it. It's fair to say the loss of €5.9m didn't encourage us either; we'd like to see a profit. And until that time we think this is a risky stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that KPS is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those don't sit too well with us...
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if KPS might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About XTRA:KSC
KPS
Provides business transformation consulting and process optimization services in retail and consumer goods sectors in Germany, Scandinavia, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Benelux, Spain, and internationally.