Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Publity AG (ETR:PBY)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Publity fair value estimate is €5.66
• Publity's €6.68 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Publity's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -32%

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Publity AG (ETR:PBY) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Publity

Is Publity Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€2.29m	€4.56m	€4.23m	€5.85m	€6.44m	€6.85m	€7.17m	€7.42m	€7.61m	€7.77m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 6.37%	Est @ 4.67%	Est @ 3.47%	Est @ 2.63%	Est @ 2.05%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.5%	€2.1	€3.9	€3.4	€4.4	€4.5	€4.4	€4.3	€4.2	€4.0	€3.8

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €39m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.5%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €7.8m× (1 + 0.7%) ÷ (7.5%– 0.7%) = €115m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €115m÷ ( 1 + 7.5%)¹⁰= €56m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €95m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €6.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Publity as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.5%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.482. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Publity, there are three pertinent factors you should consider:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Publity (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does PBY's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.