Grand City Properties S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that Grand City Properties S.A. (ETR:GYC) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.2% to €11.98 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.25, some 29% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €149m. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Grand City Properties after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Grand City Properties

Taking into account the latest results, Grand City Properties' six analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €607.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Grand City Properties forecast to report a statutory profit of €1.09 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €609.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.32 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at €13.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grand City Properties at €19.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €8.40. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Grand City Properties' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 2.6% over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it's pretty clear that Grand City Properties is still expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, they made no changes to their revenue estimates - and they expect it to perform better than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Grand City Properties going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Grand City Properties , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.