The K+S Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:SDF) Third-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

A week ago, K+S Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:SDF) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of €866m leading estimates by 4.4%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at €0.15 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on K+S after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for K+S

After the latest results, the consensus from K+S' 16 analysts is for revenues of €3.58b in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 3.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 211% to €0.44. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.28 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at €11.99, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic K+S analyst has a price target of €17.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €7.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - K+S is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around K+S' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that K+S' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for K+S going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that K+S is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.