Stock Analysis

Evonik Industries (ETR:EVK) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt

XTRA:EVK
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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Evonik Industries AG (ETR:EVK) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Evonik Industries

How Much Debt Does Evonik Industries Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Evonik Industries had €3.28b of debt in December 2020, down from €3.87b, one year before. However, it also had €1.06b in cash, and so its net debt is €2.22b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
XTRA:EVK Debt to Equity History March 16th 2021

A Look At Evonik Industries' Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Evonik Industries had liabilities of €2.93b due within a year, and liabilities of €9.87b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of €1.06b and €1.72b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €10.0b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of €13.7b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Evonik Industries' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Evonik Industries has net debt of just 1.3 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 7.3 times, which is more than adequate. It is just as well that Evonik Industries's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 25% over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Evonik Industries's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, Evonik Industries produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 59% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Evonik Industries's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. But on the bright side, its ability to to convert EBIT to free cash flow isn't too shabby at all. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Evonik Industries's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Evonik Industries that you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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