Oatly Group AB

DB:9ZX Stock Report

Market Cap: €419.9m

Oatly Group Valuation

Is 9ZX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9ZX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9ZX (€0.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9ZX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9ZX?

Key metric: As 9ZX is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 9ZX. This is calculated by dividing 9ZX's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 9ZX's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.5x
SalesUS$813.47m
Market CapUS$439.90m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 9ZX's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 9ZX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
NLM FRoSTA
0.6xn/a€415.6m
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
1.7xn/a€609.4m
SZU Südzucker
0.2x0.5%€2.2b
SMB Schwälbchen Molkerei Jakob Berz
0.3xn/a€55.8m
9ZX Oatly Group
0.5x6.3%€439.9m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 9ZX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 9ZX's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

35 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
9ZX 0.5xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies48PS00.81.62.43.24+
35 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 9ZX is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the European Food industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9ZX's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9ZX PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.5x
Fair PS Ratio0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 9ZX is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9ZX forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.69
€1.78
+158.8%
52.1%€3.75€0.80n/a8
Nov ’25€0.73
€1.82
+148.4%
47.0%€3.71€0.97n/a8
Oct ’25€0.80
€1.81
+126.6%
47.0%€3.69€0.97n/a8
Sep ’25€0.82
€1.81
+121.1%
47.0%€3.69€0.97n/a8
Aug ’25€0.91
€1.81
+99.6%
47.0%€3.69€0.97n/a8
Jul ’25€0.86
€1.84
+112.7%
47.4%€3.71€0.98n/a8
Jun ’25€1.00
€1.84
+84.5%
47.4%€3.71€0.98n/a8
May ’25€1.04
€1.85
+78.0%
47.4%€3.74€0.98n/a8
Apr ’25€1.08
€1.82
+69.4%
48.3%€3.70€0.97n/a8
Mar ’25€1.00
€1.82
+82.1%
48.3%€3.70€0.97n/a8
Feb ’25€1.07
€1.91
+79.1%
63.3%€3.69€0.58n/a5
Jan ’25€1.17
€1.89
+61.3%
58.1%€3.67€0.58n/a6
Dec ’24€0.97
€1.89
+93.8%
58.1%€3.67€0.58n/a6
Nov ’24€0.46
€2.61
+466.5%
49.9%€4.75€0.71€0.737
Oct ’24€0.86
€3.22
+275.5%
51.4%€6.61€1.32€0.808
Sep ’24€1.15
€3.03
+164.4%
52.4%€6.50€1.30€0.829
Aug ’24€1.39
€2.90
+108.4%
57.5%€6.37€1.27€0.9110
Jul ’24€1.89
€4.14
+119.1%
42.8%€6.40€1.55€0.8610
Jun ’24€1.50
€4.21
+181.8%
40.5%€6.45€1.57€1.0011
May ’24€2.13
€4.36
+104.9%
33.4%€6.42€2.29€1.0410
Apr ’24€2.16
€4.32
+99.8%
34.0%€6.53€2.33€1.0811
Mar ’24€2.05
€4.00
+95.1%
39.9%€6.49€1.85€1.0012
Feb ’24€2.21
€4.00
+81.4%
39.9%€6.49€1.85€1.0712
Jan ’24€1.62
€3.65
+125.2%
51.4%€6.60€1.42€1.1712
Dec ’23€1.57
€4.08
+159.7%
42.3%€6.79€2.04€0.9713
Nov ’23€2.31
€5.05
+119.2%
33.4%€8.13€3.05€0.4613

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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