Here's Why Global Top E-Commerce (SZSE:002640) Is Weighed Down By Its Debt Load

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Global Top E-Commerce Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002640) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Global Top E-Commerce

What Is Global Top E-Commerce's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Global Top E-Commerce had CN¥907.4m of debt, at June 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have CN¥151.5m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about CN¥755.9m.

How Healthy Is Global Top E-Commerce's Balance Sheet?

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Global Top E-Commerce had liabilities of CN¥2.15b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥476.9m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥151.5m in cash and CN¥1.57b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥906.3m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

Since publicly traded Global Top E-Commerce shares are worth a total of CN¥4.88b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 1.1 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.3 hit our confidence in Global Top E-Commerce like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Global Top E-Commerce saw its EBIT tank 20% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Global Top E-Commerce's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last two years, Global Top E-Commerce burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

On the face of it, Global Top E-Commerce's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. Having said that, its ability to handle its total liabilities isn't such a worry. Overall, it seems to us that Global Top E-Commerce's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Global Top E-Commerce , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.