A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Suning Universal Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000718)

Key Insights

• Suning UniversalLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥1.58 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With CN¥1.72 share price, Suning UniversalLtd appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• When compared to theindustry average discount of -1,337%, Suning UniversalLtd's competitors seem to be trading at a greater premium to fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Suning Universal Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000718) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Suning UniversalLtd

The Model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥355.5m	CN¥359.3m	CN¥365.2m	CN¥372.5m	CN¥381.0m	CN¥390.4m	CN¥400.5m	CN¥411.3m	CN¥422.6m	CN¥434.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 0.31%	Est @ 1.09%	Est @ 1.63%	Est @ 2.01%	Est @ 2.28%	Est @ 2.46%	Est @ 2.60%	Est @ 2.69%	Est @ 2.75%	Est @ 2.80%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 10.0%	CN¥323	CN¥297	CN¥274	CN¥255	CN¥237	CN¥220	CN¥206	CN¥192	CN¥179	CN¥168

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.4b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥434m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10.0%– 2.9%) = CN¥6.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥6.3b÷ ( 1 + 10.0%)¹⁰= CN¥2.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥4.8b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥1.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Suning UniversalLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.259. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Suning UniversalLtd, we've put together three fundamental elements you should further examine:

1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Suning UniversalLtd (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com